A Constellation of Possible Futures
The Civil Society Foresight Observatory Discovery Report
1
About the Civil Society Foresight Observatory
The Civil Society Foresight Observatory has been seed-funded by The National Lottery Community Fund to:
Show the process through which foresight practice can be combined with lived, learnt, and practice expertise[2]
Test the feasibility of a shared Foresight Commons for civil society
Understand how the Foresight Commons can become new infrastructure for civil society, funded by a network of funders
Our aim is to make visible some of the possible, plausible, and just futures that rarely surface in more traditional, top-down foresight, and make it easier for infrastructure communities, civil society, funders, and policymakers to actively shape and nurture alternatives through strategic interventions.
Careful Industries’ job in this initial six-month period is to prototype and test the Observatory and show what could be possible in a larger, collaborative programme of work. We are also publishing our findings throughout the project, building a shared resource so that others can use the tools and methods we develop along the way.
[2]
See definitions
1.1
Working hypothesis
The working hypothesis is that the Observatory will gather weak signals from across civil society to create a Foresight Commons, bringing to life civil-society foresight and creating a shared evidence base that helps:
Funders fund different futures
Civil society organisations anticipate and adapt more quickly
The Foresight Commons will be a resource that can be drawn on to support more diverse and anticipatory funding decisions that back emergent work, influence policymakers, and showcase the expertise of the breadth of civil society in long-term thinking and planning.
Our ambition is to demonstrate the continuous co-existence and interconnection of multiple realities for different communities.
1.2
Relational foresight
Through Discovery, we have been researching what needs to be in place to make this happen. Our conclusion is that a Civil Society Foresight Commons requires a relational way of doing foresight.[3] This is based on what Donna Haraway calls a collective "response-ability"[4] for our world and our futures,[5] and our ambition is to demonstrate the continuous co-existence and interconnection of multiple realities for different communities.
Our starting point is to show the connections and differences between the kind of “top-down” foresight typically produced by powerful bodies such as governments and big business and the continuous, emergent sensing that takes place in civil society. As we found in the Glimmers Project,[6] there is an abundance of empirical and qualitative knowledge in civil society that is rarely shared outside of its immediate context; [7] we want to make some of this knowledge more visible and accessible, and show some of the different facets of complex problems.
For instance, the recent McKinsey paper “The next normal arrives: Trends that will define 2021 – and beyond” is an attempt to aggregate the near-future trends that matter to global business: working from home is described as a productivity booster; the pandemic a spur to innovation; and the speed of crisis response finally makes the elusive Fourth Industrial Revolution a tantalising possibility. Covid-19 is depicted as a large-scale disruptor that has allowed businesses to put rapid system development first, and the emphasis is on maintaining that momentum while getting ahead of the substantial growth opportunities provided by going green. It is a largely dispassionate view of a world in which business growth is the ultimate driver. [8]
[3]
Donna Haraway refers to this relationality as "sympoesis", or "becoming-with each other" (2016, 125).
[4]
Haraway expands: "Response-ability is about both absence and presence, killing and nurturing, living and dying—and remembering who lives and who dies and how in the string figures of naturalcultural history" (2016, 28).
[5]
Donna J Haraway, Staying with the Trouble, Experimental Futures: Technological Lives, Scientific Arts, Anthropological Voices (Duke University Press, 2016), 125.
[6]
Rachel Coldicutt and Gill Wildman, “Glimmers,” Glimmers: A vision for community-powered tech, August 2020, https://glimmersreport.net
[7]
Rachel Coldicutt, “Social Missions and Innovation,” Glimmers (blog), July 14, 2020, https://medium.com/glimmers/social-missions-and-innovation-d6b45bfc37df.
[8]
“The Next Normal: Business Trends for 2021 | McKinsey,” January 2021, https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/leadership/the-next-normal-arrives-trends-that-will-define-2021-and-beyond.
“A world where many worlds fit.”
But how might the same scenarios look from the perspective of the workers powering supply chains in the context of climate hostility or delivering more productivity from the kitchen table? What might the aggregate picture look like if it considered the unpaid care work that happens in families and communities, the impact of Long Covid, or the context of global grief? The aim of relational foresight is to show how some of these futures coexist, impact and affect one another and capture some of the texture of “a world where many worlds fit”.[9]
By working with civil society rather than directly with groups of citizens, our aim is to capture the early signs of systemic changes as they become audible to those who choose to listen.
This is intentionally different from participatory foresight practices that are more commonly deployed to work through shared social divisions and dilemmas, and which we discuss in more detail in Section 4. While this type of “bottom-up” public participation can be a democratic good, it is not always optimised to capture disparate weak signals. Multiple possible futures could be unfolding within any mini-public, but the emphasis on collaboration and consensus around clearly emerging and existing dilemmas is often a higher priority than capturing these shared and unfolding points of difference.
This kind of "bottom-up" participatory practice also needs “official” permission to happen: mini-publics are often convened to deliberate on issues that can be observed or anticipated by those with traditional power, and so there is a limit to the possibility of opening up opportunities for alternative futures to arise. Rather than shaping "unofficial futures" to fit within the boundaries set by the perspectives and rhetoric of these dominant narratives, relational foresight pushes us to engage the space between "official" and "unofficial" futures and to expand the parameters of our considerations.
[9]
Translated from “un mondo donde quepan muchos mondos”: “The trope ‘A World Where Many Worlds Fit’ goes back to the Subcomandante Marcos, when talking about the Zapatistas’ struggles in the Lacandonian Rainforest in Mexico. Since their uprising in 1994 the Zapatistas have been fighting for a less-hierarchic autonomous world where more options exist for involvement in democratic decision-making processes."
“A WORLD WHERE MANY WORLDS FIT : COAL,” accessed August 7, 2021, http://www.projetcoal.org/coal/en/2010/01/22/a-world-where-many-worlds-fit/.
1.3
Values
To understand how to make this relational practice a possibility, we have reviewed existing foresight practices. Our initial hypothesis is that the creation and maintenance of a relational Foresight Commons depends upon:
Ensuring foresight from all sources has equal status
Establishing an alternative to "official" and "unofficial" foresight practices that allows for collective problem making.
Creating a new space for relational foresight that draws on the differences or convergences between official and unofficial futures.
Being useful and intelligible to both funders and to wider civil society
As Elinor Ostrom showed, the longevity of any Commons depends on clear terms of common agreement, and throughout the pilot we will iterate and build on this set of values.
Next: What we’re going to do >
A Constellation of Possible Futures
The Civil Society Foresight Observatory Discovery Report