A Constellation of Possible Futures

The Civil Society Foresight Observatory Discovery Report

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What we’re going to do

For our pilot, we will recruit a group of Civil Society Observers. The Observers will be drawn from a range of backgrounds: some will be experienced foresight practitioners, others will bring a mixture of lived, learnt and practice knowledge and experience. The Observers will be guided through an iterative process and the foresight they share will be mapped and developed to show possible leverage and intervention points for funders and civil society organisations. This will form the basis of the Foresight Commons, and show a set of possible, plausible, just futures that could be nurtured into being through coordinated, strategic interventions from funders and civil society. 

 

We will: 

  • Summarise and share the findings of a few influential future narratives created by governments and consultancies 

  • Map these futures and work with our Observers with foresight experience to extrapolate them into possible worlds, and show their combined and aggregate impact (lightweight) 

  • Through interviews and workshops, ask our Observers with lived, learnt and practice experience to share the most pressing futures they see unfolding over a range of short and medium-term periods (5+ years out) — this will be our starting point for creating alternative futures 

  • Map these futures and work with our Observers with foresight experience to extrapolate them into possible worlds, and show their combined and aggregate impact (in-depth)

  • Show the gaps between these unfolding possible and plausible worlds

  • Show leverage points where funders and civil society could fruitfully intervene, and show the potential outcome of their intervention

We envisage this process could then be replayed by working with Observers with different subject-matter expertise, with each new set of possible worlds being added to the mapping/visualisation of possible and plausible worlds. 

 

Work plan

August: review official futures; recruit Observers; establish Observatory values and behaviours 

September: peer group discussion and review; test plans with funders; develop stimulus for Observer sessions; first round of Observer sessions 

October: mapping, revisit Observers; layer in second round of Observer meetings and workshops; develop additional stimulus; review with funders; test values 

November/December: mapping, revisit Observers; layer in third round of Observer meetings and workshops; revisit mapping; share progress and recommendations